I was curious about the number of “excess deaths” that we have seen since 2019 in order to validate the accuracy of the reported COVID deaths so I went to the New Jersey Department of Health Vital Statistics page and collected the number of deaths for the last several years. Here’s what I found:

I thought this was interesting because it shows just how bad the impact of COVID-19 was on NJ in 2020. That’s at least 20,855 more deaths than 2018 (which was the highest number in the stats I collected) or 29% more! Additionally, you can take the approximate total number of deaths from 2020 (20,855) and 2021 (7,830) and add a bit to see that the number of COVID deaths in NJ is very close to the 30,759 as reported today (2022-01-24).

This was important because it shows that even without the cause of death information (which may have over-reported the number of COVID deaths), we can see a large number of “excess deaths” of which we can logically assume are COVID related. This is the kind of research we, as laymen, can do on the internet. I didn’t have to watch any Youtube videos to “figure out what was really going on”. I just used the numbers that are easily available and a bit of math and logical thinking (and Excel, of course!).

Here we are in the month 21 of the COVID experience. For the most part, we have settled into a routine and adjusted to the “new normal”. It’s no longer strange to see people wearing masks over their noses and mouths in public and, at the same time, we assume those who aren’t doing so have been vaccinated against the virus or just don’t care about it. Of course there’s still a political or philosophical bent to any government or official policies related to the handling of the pandemic but, for my part, I don’t run into this issue very frequently. Although I and my family and most of the people I associate with have been vaccinated, I have friends who refuse to do so for a variety of reasons. None of them are crackpots so I still see them on a regular basis. Although I’ve been to see a couple movies in the theater and we’ve been out to restaurants several times, our forays into the public are fewer and further-between than they were in 2019.

With all this, I often ask myself “How much worse could this have been?” As of today, there have been 788,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the United States. At this rate, we will see more than a million deaths by early 2022. I believe comparisons of the averages from the last several years shows a fairly large increase in “excess mortality” with each wave of the pandemic. I think this statistic helps to argue against anyone who would say that all deaths are no attributed to COVID.

I tend to think that without the “lockdowns”, remote education and work, mask requirements and vaccinations, these numbers would be higher.